Speakers - WNSC 2025

Soo Hyeon Cho

  • Designation: College of Nursing, Yonsei University
  • Country: Republic of Korea
  • Title: A Study on Estimation and Prediction of HIV incidence in South Korea through Spatiotemporal Modeling: Uncertainty in Illness Theory Applied

Abstract

Nurses have a professional obligation to contribute to policy development through research on vulnerable populations, not only providing specialized nursing care at the bedside. HIV, which stands for Human Immunodeficiency Virus, is the infectious agent responsible for causing acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Understanding the scale of HIV infection is crucial not only for establishing and evaluating national policy goals but also for implementing policies, securing budgets, and allocating resources. Nevertheless, a significant number of individuals who are HIV positive remain unaware of their infection status due to shared signs and symptoms with various other diseases. Indeed, there have been no studies conducted in South Korea using spatiotemporal modelling to estimate and predict the population of HIV infections thus far.


The theoretical framework guiding this modelling study is based on the measurement of uncertainty in evidence theory and Mishel's theory of uncertainty in illness. In this study, adaptation refers to estimating and predicting the scale of HIV infection using proper measurement tools, which can be utilized in evaluating national policies. The measurement tools should be credible, reliable, clear, and based on the theoretical foundation, aligning with the concept of coping strategies in Mishel's theory.


This study reflects on the social phenomenon itself related to nursing and the problems of policies related to nursing care, based on the integration of traditional sociological theories and nursing theories. The ultimate goal of this study is not only the concept of adaptation within the agreed scope of patient health promotion but also to derive a wide range of outcomes such as cost savings, political paradigms, equality, and social consensus. However, this study differs from general nursing theory application papers as it deals with population health issues in a broader sense rather than individual clinical nursing problems. Nevertheless, it contributes to the broad development and growth of nursing by applying sociological theory and utilizing structural mathematical modelling in the natural science field.

 

 

 

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